There is a 95.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March.

date
23/02/2026
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 4.1%, while the probability of maintaining the interest rates unchanged is 95.9%. The probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by a total of 25 basis points by April is 16.4%, with a probability of maintaining the interest rates unchanged at 83%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June is 44%.