Guangda Futures: Market sentiment recovered, lithium carbonate rose more than 5% intraday.

Last week, non-ferrous metals continued to trade weakly in the face of tightening liquidity and declining speculative sentiment. However, starting from the night session on Friday of last week, market sentiment slightly improved, and today non-ferrous metals rebounded collectively, with lithium carbonate seeing a maximum intraday increase of over 5% accompanied by an increase in positions. Considering the significant impact of short-term sentiment and funds on the market, it is necessary to be cautious about the sustainability of the rebound in lithium carbonate before the holiday. From a fundamental perspective, downstream Spring Festival stockpiling has basically ended, and there are already cases of strategic stocking. If prices trend too strong in the short term, actual purchases may slow down, resulting in a drag on prices. Last week, news revealed a significant month-on-month increase in shipping data from Chile in January, but this was due to advanced shipping for the Spring Festival and is not sustainable. Significant supply pressure domestically may be reflected after the New Year. At the same time, domestic production will gradually resume in March, and whether there will be unexpected pressure on the demand side remains to be seen. If it remains flat with December of last year, the market may switch from February's excess of 6,000 tons to a tight balance or slight accumulation in March. However, weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons last week. Downstream inventory increased by 3,058 tons to 43,657 tons, while other links decreased by 4,430 tons to 43,450 tons and upstream decreased by 647 tons to 18,356 tons. It is undeniable that the continued decline in post-holiday inventory levels may become a significant bullish support. Rationally speaking, the market currently lacks more certainty in terms of bullish momentum, and market sentiment is somewhat chaotic. It is recommended to focus on trading opportunities after correction.