Lates News

The independent macroeconomic research institute Continuum Economics' senior economist for North America, Dave Sloan, stated that he expects the ADP employment numbers for January to increase by 30,000, a slowdown from December's 41,000. At the same time, he anticipates that the ADP report data will be significantly lower than the non-farm employment data for January, as they predict an overall increase of 85,000 in non-farm employment in January. The December ADP data was largely in line with the non-farm employment data, but recent ADP data has tended to be weaker, with an average difference of 22,000 fewer jobs over the past six months compared to non-farm data. Although the gap has narrowed compared to September and November, it is expected to widen to 50,000 in January. Non-farm employment in January is expected to rebound from the recent weakness in the retail sector, with this factor having a smaller impact on ADP data. It is anticipated that the detailed ADP data for January will show a slight improvement in the goods-producing sectors (especially construction), but a slowdown in the growth of the service sector. The trend of ADP data performing weaker than non-farm data, particularly in the service sector, is evident, with a notable difference in data for the education and healthcare industries.