Galaxy Securities: It is expected that the lithium price will rise in the central range or there may be a phase mismatch.

Galaxy Securities research report pointed out that the trend of lithium prices in 2025 can be divided into two clear halves with mid-year as the dividing point. In the first half of the year, the consensus expectation of excess supply continued, causing prices to fall to near the cash cost of lithium spodumene. It is reported that overseas mines are planning to reduce production, but have not yet made a decision to reduce production. The market has already started in the second half of the year. The driving force of dynamic storage and double wheels in the third quarter, combined with the impact of the new mineral resources law on mining certificates, has reversed the bearish sentiment of funds, and the turning point of the trading cycle has appeared, indicating a positive trend in the industry. By the end of the year, the price of lithium carbonate has more than doubled from its low point. Even with frequent regulatory policies, the upward trend cannot be changed, and new highs continue to be set after brief corrections. The research report believes that lithium, as a key mineral for energy transformation, is an important foundation for global competition for the pricing power of electricity, and the industry's long-term trend is positive under the trend of "anti-cannibalization." In 2026, lithium will become the preferred option for multi-directional allocation of funds, and it is expected that the central operating price of lithium will rise. However, due to the slight excess supply expectations throughout the year, the pace may be somewhat fluctuating. It is recommended to buy on dips in the first half of the year, and be flexible in hedging strategies after the increase in supply elasticity in the second half of the year.