Huatai Securities: The carbon price and green certificate market will undergo a value reassessment driven by policies.

Huatai Securities' research report states that looking into the future, the carbon price and green certificate market will see a revaluation in value under policy promotion: 1. The carbon market will shift from "soft constraints" to "hard constraints", and by 2027, it will essentially cover the major emitting industries in the industrial sector. The proportion of paid quota allocation will increase, the total quota will tighten year by year, and there will be sufficient long-term upward momentum for carbon prices, with an expected increase to the range of 150-200 yuan per ton by 2030; 2. Policy has clearly promoted the linking of the environmental value of green certificates with the value of carbon reduction. In the future, there may be a mechanism to exchange green certificates for carbon quotas, or green certificates may be allowed for carbon offsetting in some industries. Green certificate prices will gradually approach carbon prices, significantly enhancing the economic viability of green electricity; 3. The transmission path of carbon costs and green certificate costs in electricity prices will become clearer, with the proportion of enterprises absorbing costs on their own gradually decreasing, promoting electricity prices to fully reflect environmental costs and supporting the development of carbon and green certificate markets.