In 2026, the lithium carbonate fundamentals may return to tight balance.

Lithium carbonate main contract staged a "roller coaster" market on January 26th. In early trading, the main contract surged strongly, rising sharply by 6.84% at one point, reaching a high of 18,940 yuan per ton, the highest since August 2023. However, market sentiment suddenly changed in the afternoon, and the contract experienced a significant drop, ultimately closing down by 6.56%, with a daily fluctuation of over 13%. From a single-day futures perspective, the bearish trend is clearly prevailing. However, it is understood from the industry insiders that the supply and demand relationship in the lithium carbonate market in 2026 has significantly improved. Recently, the certification process for the Nengde Times Lithium Mine and the Guoxuan High-Tech Shui'nan Mine has entered the exchange phase, and the issuance of new mining permits may still require a long period. In addition, the issue of solid waste treatment of lithium residue remains a constraint on the growth of lithium production capacity. In the medium to long term, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate in 2026 may return to a tight balance state, with most of the supply increment possibly concentrated in the second half of the year. Leading lithium companies are more optimistic about the demand in the energy storage field, as energy storage has become a new driver of lithium carbonate demand.