Guotai Haitong: It is expected that long-term bonds will still be under relatively pressured in the first half of the first quarter.

The report released by the fixed income team of Guotai Haotong Securities Research Institute stated that although the Chinese bond market has been somewhat repaired, it is expected that the overall trend of 30-year bonds in the first half of the first quarter will still be relatively under pressure. When interest rates rise, 30-year government bonds not only face directional operations of rising interest rates, but also some emerging hedging, neutral strategies, and even "negative duration" strategies, in which the hedge end is mainly focused on borrowing and selling 30-year government bonds and futures of the same term. Looking ahead, there are three factors that are difficult to change: the stock market is relatively strong, the expectation of narrow downside space for bond interest rates is difficult to change; the effect of the issuance of super-long bonds on the allocation of 30-year government bonds is constrained; and the high elasticity and high liquidity characteristics of 30-year government bonds are difficult to change. In the future, the spread between 30-year and 10-year government bond terms, the spread between 10-year government bonds and treasury bonds, may continue to be relatively high, while the spread between long-term local government bonds and treasury bonds may remain relatively low.