Strategist: The possibility of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia may be greater than expected.

date
16/01/2026
GSFM's investment strategist, Stephen Miller, said: "Given the significant rebound in consumer spending and the relatively good state of the labor market, the balance of probabilities leans towards a policy rate hike." He added that the danger of not taking action in February is that the Reserve Bank of Australia may need to take more aggressive action in the future. The currency market currently predicts a 30% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia, with the final outcome largely dependent on policymakers' risk tolerance.