Zhongjin: It is expected that the growth rate of the total financial volume may continue to slow down in the first half of 2026.

The outlook of Zhongjin Company for 2026 is that the growth rate of financial total in the first half of the year may continue to slow down. In the first three quarters of 2025, factors such as the expansion of government debt scale and issuance leading, as well as the low base number in 2024, have improved the growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 significantly, forming a relatively high base number. Looking ahead to the liquidity environment in 2026, in terms of fiscal policy, the fiscal policy in 2026 may emphasize quality and efficiency rather than a significant increase in total amount again. It is expected that the broad fiscal deficit ratio in 2026 may not increase significantly, and although government debt issuance is likely to remain leading, the scale of increase in the same period last year may slow down compared to 2025. On the monetary policy front, the monetary policy committee of the central bank's fourth quarterly meeting report largely continues the theme of downplaying the demands for overall financial quantity. The implied expectations of interest rate reduction in the interest rate derivative market have also significantly retreated from the level at the beginning of 2025.