CICC: The current expectations of interest rate cuts are generally stable, with expectations of a 10bp rate cut for the full year of 2026.

The research report of a top financial company pointed out that this "structural interest rate cut" is mainly structural, and does not necessarily mean there will be an immediate traditional interest rate cut afterwards. During press conferences, the central bank usually announces both overall reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts as well as adjustments to structural monetary policies at once, such as in May last year. During this press conference, the central bank mainly announced a cut in structural monetary policy tools, without announcing traditional reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts. At the same time, the central bank pointed out during the press conference that "recently, China's price levels have shown positive changes, and the coordination effect of China's macroeconomic policies continues to strengthen." Taking all of this information into account, we tend to believe that this policy adjustment is mainly structural, while the overall tone remains relatively loose. After the information was released, government bond futures rose slightly before falling back down. Our calculated policy rate expectations index shows that current interest rate cut expectations are relatively stable, with expectations for a 10bp interest rate cut throughout 2026.