India's purchases of Russian crude oil may fall again, causing a buildup of oil tankers in Hong Kong waters.

India's purchase of Russian oil this month may stabilize or even decrease, leading to more Russian oil being stranded at sea. Both ship tracking data and insiders point to this downward trend. India's imports of Russian oil hit a three-year low in December last year, dropping by one-third from the peak in June. The Trump administration has been criticizing India's purchase of Russian oil for months, alleging that it is supporting Putin and ultimately imposing a 50% punitive tariff on India. The trade negotiations between the two sides have so far not reached an agreement, and the United States is currently considering a sanction bill that will penalize countries purchasing oil and gas products from Russia. Indian refiners are adjusting their procurement patterns, buying more alternative oil products from the Middle East, West Africa, and Latin America, even though they are more expensive. Indian Oil Corporation recently purchased crude oil from Ecuador, a rare move. Insiders reveal that refiners have not yet made a formal offer for Venezuelan crude oil and will wait to ensure that the purchase does not violate any sanction regulations before making a decision.