Wen Bin: High-level conclusion of import and export, exports in 2026 are expected to be stable in quantity and quality.

According to the General Administration of Customs data, the export scale in December 2025 greatly exceeded expectations, setting a historical record for monthly exports, while the import scale also reached a high point since 2022. Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, stated that looking ahead, the improvement in the external environment will provide strong support for exports, with the high base number being the main disruptive factor. The record high in exports in 2025 will to a certain extent drag down the year-on-year growth rate of exports in 2026 due to the high base number. We predict that the export scale will still be maintained at a relatively high level, with a slight increase in growth rate.