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The Zhongjin research report stated that there is a viewpoint recently that believes the renminbi exchange rate is significantly undervalued, one of the arguments being that the price of McDonald's hamburgers in China is much lower than in the United States. The seemingly simple argument is based on the theory of Purchasing Power Parity, which states that the prices of homogenous goods in different countries, when converted through exchange rates, should be equal. However, this mode of thinking deviates significantly from reality, with three main flaws. First, the so-called law of one price only applies to tradable goods and not non-tradable goods. Second, even for tradable goods, the conditions for the law of one price to hold are very strict and difficult to meet in reality. Third, and most importantly, focusing on commodity prices in the context of global foreign exchange trading, which far exceeds the volume of international trade, does not align well with reality when considering exchange rates.
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