Huatai Securities: The profit center of electrolytic aluminum is expected to move further upward in the first half of 2026.

Huatai Securities pointed out that the profit center of electrolytic aluminum is expected to move further upward in the first half of 2026. Recently, aluminum prices have risen sharply, and the purchasing atmosphere of the downstream industry chain of electrolytic aluminum is becoming cautious. The fundamental data performance is relatively weak, with a large accumulation of inventory in the electrolytic aluminum link, weak spot basis, and mainstream aluminum rod processing fees turning negative. This data has raised concerns among many investors about whether the price of aluminum can sustainably rise. Huatai Securities believes that it is a normal phenomenon for downstream purchasing willingness to be weak under the background of the off-season and high prices. What is worth noting is that this phenomenon has led to continuously low downstream raw material inventories. As long as the long-term supply and demand pattern of electrolytic aluminum remains tight, the downstream purchasing volume after price adjustment may provide strong support for aluminum prices. The profit center of aluminum prices may still have a large upward trend compared to before the current rise. Considering the positive influence of the subsequent peak demand season in "Jin-San-Yin-Si", it is believed that the weaker downstream purchase willingness at present may be more conducive to the future upward movement of aluminum prices and profit centers. It is optimistic about the trend of profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector in the first half of 2026.