CITIC Securities: Asset allocation recommendations should adopt a bimodal strategy.
CITIC Securities pointed out that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the Chinese economy will enter a transformation period dominated by new quality production forces, with the central axis of growth shifting downwards and external geopolitical competition intensifying. Industrial investment will focus on four main themes: technology self-reliance and self-strengthening driven by new quality production forces, green transformation during the period of carbon peaking, silver economy driven by population aging, and strategic resource allocation under overall development and security. Non-ferrous metals are expected to continue to perform strongly, with gold serving as a core safe-haven asset under the logic of "de-dollarization" pricing, and copper and aluminum benefiting from energy transformation and supply constraints. Asset allocation is recommended to use a double-peak strategy: defensive end allocation to high-dividend yield assets to obtain stable cash flow returns, and offensive end allocation to hard technology growth assets to capture excess returns from domestic substitution and industrial upgrading.
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