Kai Tak Macro said that the turmoil in Iran poses a greater risk to oil supply than Venezuela.

Analysts at Capital Economics say that the escalating turmoil in Iran could have a major impact on the global oil market. They stated, "The prospect of disruptions to Iran's energy output poses a greater threat to global supply than the situation in Venezuela, especially considering that the turmoil could impact supplies outside of Iran." "Given that Iran is currently one of the largest economies within China's sphere of influence, its geopolitical importance is also very high." According to the company, Iranian oil accounts for nearly 15% of China's total crude oil imports, while Venezuela accounts for 2%. These analysts suggest that oil worker strikes, blockades of shadow fleets, or threats to close the Strait of Hormuz could potentially lead to a $15-20 per barrel increase in oil prices, although the increase may only be temporary.