CITIC Securities: 2026 Outlook for Major Asset Classes

CITIC Securities research report states that in 2026, the general asset environment may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery. We recommend commodities>stocks>bonds. In terms of equities, we expect the full A-share index to rise by 5%-10% throughout 2026; Hong Kong stocks are expected to see a rebound in earnings and a second round of valuation recovery in the Davis Double-click market; with "fiscal + monetary" double easing background in the mid-term election year, it is expected that the US stock market will continue its fundamental growth momentum. In terms of bonds, we expect the 10-year Chinese government bond yield to fluctuate within the range of 1.5%-1.8% throughout the year, with a downward trend followed by an upward trend; the 10-year US Treasury yield may maintain a range of 3.9%-4.3%. In terms of commodities, the supply-demand pattern of crude oil is shifting from surplus to balance, and Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate within the range of $58-70 per barrel throughout the year; gold will continue to be strong under the support of loose liquidity and geopolitical risks, but the rate of increase may slow down, with a potential to reach $5000 per ounce; copper, on the other hand, is expected to rise to an average price of $12000 per ton under supply constraints and driving force of electricity demand. In terms of exchange rates, the Renminbi may enter a mild appreciation cycle, and the central parity of the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to gradually move closer to 6.8.