The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 15.5%.

According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 15.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 84.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a total of 25 basis points by March next year is 42.2%, with a probability of keeping rates unchanged at 51.8%, and a probability of a total cut of 50 basis points at 6%.