Guotai Haitong: There is limited room for the current rapid decline in coal prices, and it is expected that a demand-led cycle will begin in 2026.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the core driving logic of the trend in coal prices is the supply and demand situation. The bank believes that there is limited room for the current rapid decline in coal prices, and predicts that this round of bottoming out is expected to be at 680-700 yuan/ton. In addition, after the implementation of Document No. 136 in June, there was a cliff-like decline in the installation of photovoltaic equipment, indicating that the pressure of new energy substitution will decrease in the first quarter of 2026. The bank believes that the bottom of the coal sector cycle has been confirmed in the second quarter of 2025, and the supply and demand situation has already shown a turning point, with the bank predicting that starting in the second half of 2026, coal and downstream major demand thermal power will enter a new upward cycle, which is worth looking forward to.