Weather helps kick off, Brazil's soybean production estimate raised, market focuses on future critical growth period.

The agricultural consulting agency AgRural has raised its estimate for Brazil's soybean production for the 2025/26 season to 180.4 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons from the November forecast. As the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, Brazil's production in the previous quarter was 171.5 million tons. The upward revision is mainly based on overall favorable weather conditions in December, providing a good start for crop growth. The agency emphasizes that there is still uncertainty regarding final yield levels for most farmland. The size of future harvests will depend heavily on weather conditions in January, February, and the first half of March in some regions. Currently, Brazilian farmers have begun harvesting new season soybeans in some areas of Parana and Mato Grosso states. It is expected that harvesting will continue in these areas in the coming days, but significant progress in harvesting is not expected until January next year, assuming weather conditions allow.