Goldman Sachs research team: China's merchandise trade surplus is expected to continue growing in the coming years.

Recently, data released by the General Administration of Customs of China showed that in the first 11 months of 2025, China's merchandise trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, attracting significant attention in the market. In a recent research report by Goldman Sachs on macroeconomic analysis, this was listed as one of the five key economic events in China for 2025. Their analysis indicated that despite a 20%-30% year-on-year decline in exports to the United States in recent months, the overall export momentum remains strong due to strong exports to other regions offsetting the impact. The strong expansion of exports to emerging economies by China is primarily due to the growth in local demand in these emerging economies, rather than temporary factors such as export scrambling and transit trade. Looking ahead, the Goldman Sachs research team predicts that with the structural growth in exports of high-tech manufacturing and the background of the government promoting "self-controllable" technology, this surplus will continue to grow in the coming years.