Shanghai Steel Union Wang Jianhua: It is expected that the crude steel production will slightly decrease in 2026, and the supply and demand of steel may achieve weak balance.

Wang Jianhua, Chief Analyst of Shanghai Steel Union, stated that in recent years, some enterprises have been continuously losing money, and the cash flow pressure will not be able to support production. Overall, it is expected that the national crude steel production will slightly decrease in 2026, and the supply and demand of steel are expected to achieve a weak balance. In terms of costs, it is predicted that the average price of iron ore will fall to below $95 in 2026, the average price of coking coal may rebound by more than 10%, and the environmental protection costs for steel mills may increase to some extent. Taking into account the overall impact of macroeconomics, supply and demand, costs, and cycles, Wang Jianhua's analysis suggests that under neutral conditions, the average price of steel in 2026 may see a slight rebound, but whether this can be achieved also depends on the adjustment of steel mill supply.