Carnival Macro: It is too late for the improvement of retail sales in the UK.

Paul Dales of Capital Economics said in a report that weak employment and wage growth continue to drag down the consumption willingness of UK households. He stated that November's retail sales showed initial signs of improvement, but for retailers it is too late as the holiday season is already in full swing. Retail sales fell by 0.1% month-on-month, compared to a 0.9% decline in October. "These retail sales data support our view that weak consumer spending will slow GDP growth from around 1.4% this year to about 1.0% in 2026." Meanwhile, the monthly public borrowing of 11.7 billion is the lowest level for November since 2021. Dales pointed out that, despite this, it still does not make up for the borrowing levels in the first half of the year.