Economists suspect that US inflation data has been distorted due to the government shutdown.

date
19/12/2025
On December 18, the US government released the latest CPI inflation data. Several economists pointed out that housing prices, one of the largest components of the CPI, remained basically flat for two months, casting doubt on the entire estimate. "This may indeed reflect a true decline in inflation pressures, but such a sudden stagnation, especially in more persistent service items like rent, is very unusual. It is abnormal to see this phenomenon outside of a recessionary period," wrote Paul Ashworth, Chief North American Economist at Capital Economics, in his report. "The final result is that we may have to wait until next month when the December data is released to verify whether this is a statistical anomaly or a genuine decline in inflation," he stated.