Tianfeng Securities: In 2026, the pre-disposition for credit pre-positioning will become more apparent, with an optimistic bias towards early loans.

Tianfeng Securities believes that the credit pre-setting tendency will be more obvious in 2026, and is optimistic about the opening red loan, but generally do not rule out the impact of high-interest fixed-term deposits and the diversion effect brought about by the rise in the stock market. There is a possibility that the asset-liability gap in Q1 will continue to widen, and it is expected that the central bank will increase the protection of basic currency by increasing the intensity of MDS+MLF+government bond transactions. By then, although there will be some convergence in the fund market, it will not be as tight as in Q1 of 2025. In Q4 of 2025, banks may prospectively lay out, increasing the demand for funds such as 6-month interbank certificates of deposit and buy-back reverse repos across the first quarter of 2026. Credit is expected to experience a significant decline in Q2 of 2026, leading to a "recessionary easing," and it is predicted that the proportion of credit increment from Q2 to Q4 will further decrease compared to previous years.