Securities Times: How will next year's fiscal deficit be arranged?
Currently, market institutions and industry insiders have a relatively consistent expectation for the fiscal deficit rate, expecting that next year's deficit rate will not be lower than this year's level, that is, not lower than 4%. This level of deficit rate can both continue the trend of fiscal expansion and avoid the rapid accumulation of debt risks. The fiscal deficit rate is a barometer for observing the macroeconomic policy intensity in various sectors of society. From the perspective of stabilizing market expectations, the fiscal deficit rate in the first year of the "Fifteen-Five Plan" should not be lower than the previous year. In 2025, the fiscal policy orientation will shift to "more proactive", with the deficit rate rising by 1 percentage point to 4%, the highest level in recent years. In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with Finance Minister Lan Fo'an clearly stating the need to "maintain policy intensity and continuity". Keeping in mind the need to boost market confidence in next year's economic work, sending a consistent signal for the fiscal policy orientation, it is necessary to maintain a stable trend in the fiscal deficit rate next year.
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