The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%.

According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed lowering rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 24.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 75.6%. The probability of the Fed cumulatively lowering rates by 25 basis points by March next year is 43.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 49%, and the probability of cumulatively lowering rates by 50 basis points is 9.1%.