Bank of America: China's GDP is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2026, and housing prices in first-tier cities are leading the way in recovery.

Jo Hong, Chief Economist of Bank of America Securities Greater China, stated at a macroeconomic outlook conference for Asia and Greater China that she expects China's full-year GDP growth rate to reach 4.7% in 2026. She also mentioned that mainland China is expected to introduce more countercyclical adjustment policies to support economic growth close to the target level. Jo Hong stated that in order to continue stimulating domestic demand, the mainland's monetary policy will be moderately loose. The People's Bank of China is expected to have two 10 basis point interest rate cuts in 2026. The decline in policy interest rates is expected to occur in the first and second quarters of 2026. Regarding the real estate market, Jo Hong pointed out that the downward trend in the mainland property market is expected to bottom out in 2026. Prices in first-tier cities are expected to rebound first, and once stabilized, the recovery trend will gradually spread to the second and third-tier city markets.