Morgan Stanley: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond is expected to reach 4.75% by the end of 2026.

Macquarie's David Doyle and Dan Fabbro stated in their outlook report that with the improvement of economic activity, they expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to increase to 4.75% by the end of 2026, before moderating to 4.50% in 2027. They mentioned that over the past year, the 10-year US bond yield has consistently been higher compared to market pricing of the federal funds rate three years out, indicating that the theme of "maintaining high rates for a longer period of time" will continue. Data from Tradeweb shows that the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped 1 basis point to 4.097%.