Kazuo Ueda: The Bank of Japan can only estimate the neutral interest rate level within a relatively wide range at present.

date
04/12/2025
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that currently, the neutral interest rate level can only be estimated within a broad range. The market generally expects the central bank to raise interest rates again this month to further approach the neutral level. "Unfortunately, we can only estimate the neutral interest rate within a fairly broad range at the moment," Kuroda said at a parliamentary session on Thursday. "We do not know the exact level of the neutral rate, but how much and how high nominal interest rates will eventually rise to will depend on this. I want to emphasize that there is a certain level of uncertainty." Kuroda added that the Bank of Japan is trying to narrow down the range of estimates for the neutral interest rate and will announce it to the public if successful. A previous research report by the Bank of Japan stated that the neutral interest rate is roughly between 1% to 2.5%.