OECD: The major economies are expected to end the interest rate cutting cycle next year.

date
02/12/2025
The latest forecast from the OECD shows that the interest rate cutting cycle of major economies will end by the end of 2026. The organization points out that although economic growth will slow down, the policy space for most major central banks is very limited. The OECD predicts that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates twice by the end of 2026, and then maintain the federal funds rate at a range of 3.25% to 3.5% throughout 2027 - this is aimed at balancing the inflationary pressure caused by tariffs with the impact of a weak labor market. In addition, the organization predicts that the eurozone and Canada will not further cut interest rates, while Japan, where inflation stabilizes at around 2%, will continue to tighten monetary policy. For the UK, the OECD states that the Bank of England's interest rate cuts "will stop in the first half of 2026", and the Reserve Bank of Australia will reach a similar point in the second half of the same year.