Institution: Meituan's fourth quarter credit outlook is expected to weaken, maintaining a rating for the stock weaker than the market.

CreditSights analysts Stephanie Sim and Pius Xue report that the credit outlook for Meituan is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and then improve slightly in 2026. They anticipate that due to intense competition continuing to put pressure on fourth-quarter takeaway and commission revenues, revenue growth in 2025 will slow from 22% in 2024 to 8%. With competition in the instant delivery sector gradually becoming normalized, and the overseas division Keeta further expanding, revenue growth in 2026 may increase to 11%. It is expected that due to increased commission and promotional expenses to defend market share, the EBITDA margin is expected to decrease to -2% in 2025; this margin is projected to gradually recover in 2026, but will still be weak compared to historical levels due to continued competition from JD.com and Alibaba. CreditSights maintains a below-market rating on the stock.