Expectations of interest rate cuts resonate with economic weakness, as the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond falls to the 4% threshold.

Looking back at November, the U.S. bond market experienced a significant trend shift: the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, which had been fluctuating in the range of 4.1% to 4.2% in the first half of November, quickly decreased in the second half and even dropped below the key level of 4%. The behind this change reflects the global reevaluation of the U.S. economic outlook and the Fed's policy path. As we enter December, the Fed is nearing the end of its quantitative tightening and plans to reinvest funds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasury bonds. This suggests that the Fed may re-enter the market, bringing new demand to the U.S. bond market, and the changes in market supply and demand balance will also affect the trend of bond yields.