Organization: UK retail sales are expected to rebound, but the fiscal budget may bring risks.

Ruth Gregory, Deputy Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, stated that despite a 1.1% month-on-month decrease in UK retail sales in October, the data is not as pessimistic as it may seem on the surface, as retail sales had been increasing for four consecutive months prior to this. Retailers have reported that some consumers have postponed their spending in anticipation of "Black Friday" promotions, which suggests that sales data for November may see a rebound. However, Gregory cautioned that consumer sentiment remains low. The latest survey by GfK shows that the consumer confidence index for November further declined from -17 in October to -19, indicating a lack of optimism among the public about the current economic outlook. This cautious attitude is grounded in reality: the job market remains weak, inflation is still high, and it is expected that tax hikes will be announced in the government's budget next week. The risk is that the tax increases in the budget may dampen consumer spending during the holiday season.