Research results show that Trump's "Big Beautiful Act" will boost growth, but the Federal Reserve's maintenance of high interest rates may undercut its effects.

A new analysis by a former senior researcher at the Federal Reserve shows that the Trump administration's large-scale fiscal legislation will boost economic growth next year, but this impact will be partly offset by the Fed maintaining interest rates above their original levels. At the same time, the federal deficit may even exceed GDP growth. Roberts, former deputy assistant director of the Fed's research department and current special advisor at Evercore ISI, wrote in his analysis of Trump's "Big Beautiful Law" that the approximately $100 billion in additional tax refunds that may occur early next year will help boost economic growth by around 0.4 percentage points in the first half of the year.