Economist: Initial jobless claims data in the United States has not reached dangerous levels, labor market is in the "final stage of the marathon"

The wave of layoffs in the United States has not intensified to a worrying extent: by the week of October 18, the initial claims for unemployment benefits were 232,000, which is basically flat compared to September. "If the initial claims for unemployment benefits reach levels of 300,000 to 400,000, and remain higher than that level, then I will start to worry about the entire job market," said Oren Klachkin, economist at Nationwide Financial Markets. Klachkin and other economists believe that there will not be an economic recession in the short term. "To make an analogy, the current labor market is like the final stage of a marathon," Klachkin explained. "After the pandemic, we experienced a strong recovery in employment growth, but now we are entering the closing stage of this so-called competition - the job market is showing weakness, the growth rate is slowing down, and considering the current stage of the economic cycle, there are indeed potential risks." Although there is a risk of a collapse in the labor market, it is more likely that it can barely finish the race and regroup in the early next year with the clarity of tariff policy and the fiscal stimulus brought by tax and spending bills. Klachkin pointed out: "Looking at the third-quarter corporate earnings reports, the U.S. business sector is essentially sending out relatively optimistic signals about the economy continuing until next year."