CITIC Securities: Recommended to focus on investment opportunities in carbon assets, industries benefiting from low-carbon transformation, and green exemplary companies.

The research report of CITIC Securities pointed out that the release of China's third nationally determined contribution demonstrates the country's determination in low-carbon development strategy. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, it is expected that the carbon reduction "toolbox" centered on the carbon market and green certificate market will receive comprehensive upgrades: the expansion of the carbon market and quota adjustments will push the carbon price to rise to 80-90 yuan/ton from 2028 to 2030, helping to eliminate outdated capacity in the emission control industry; adjustments in supply and demand in the green certificate market will lead to a slight decline in green certificate prices to 6-6.5 yuan/piece in 2026, posing challenges and opportunities for high-energy-consuming and export industries in green electricity transformation; product carbon footprint management will help export companies enhance resilience and cultivate "green competitiveness." The update of the "toolbox" is expected to drive structural adjustments in multiple industries. It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in carbon assets, industries benefiting from low-carbon transformation, and companies with outstanding green performance.