Federal Reserve research report: Slowdown in immigration may lead to a shrinking labor force population in the future United States.

A recent study by the San Francisco Fed shows that a significant decrease in the number of immigrants in the United States could lead to a slowdown in labor force growth in the coming years, or even a contraction. The San Francisco Fed estimates that the net number of immigrants this year has "dramatically decreased" to around 515,000 people, far below the approximately 2 million in 2024. The report states that this decline is mainly due to a decrease in the number of undocumented immigrants and a "slightly higher" emigration rate. The study estimates that about 285,000 people will be deported from the United States this year. "The downward trend in 2025 is concerning as the decrease in the working-age population may become a continuing trend and lead to a slowdown or even negative growth in labor force in the coming years," wrote San Francisco Fed researchers Evgeniya A. Duzhak and Addie New-Schmidt in the analysis report released on Wednesday.