Dongwu Securities' 2026 Coal Industry Investment Strategy: High Dividend Investment Logic Continues

Dongwu Securities releases the investment strategy for the coal industry in 2026. Since 2023, with the slowdown of economic growth, the supply and demand of coal has entered a weak balance state. The normal price range for coal fluctuates between 670-870 yuan/ton, with a reasonable expectation of around 770 yuan/ton. From 2024 to 2025, the biggest impact on coal prices will be the phased preferential policies for railway transportation fees, especially the 20%-30% discount on transportation fees in Xinjiang, which will reduce transportation costs by 100-150 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, ultimately affecting coal prices in coastal areas. Investment advice: Firstly, from the perspective of coal price logic, it is expected that coal prices will fluctuate in the first half of 2026. Focus on investment opportunities related to "energy security". Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to Guanghui Energy, which benefits from the logic of "Xinjiang coal exported" with increasing production volume and performance flexibility brought by the rise in thermal coal prices. Secondly, it is recommended to focus on Hao Hua Energy, as well as Yankuang Energy and Shaanxi Coal Industry. Secondly, from the perspective of high dividend logic, it is expected that with coal prices bottoming out in the second quarter of 2025, the performance of coal listed companies will bottom out from the third quarter. It is expected that the relatively stable future coal prices will continue to support the steady profitability of leading companies. With the continuous decrease in the cost of insurance funds, high dividend targets such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal Industry are expected to see their dividend yield decrease from around 4.5% in 2025 to around 3.5% in the middle of 2026.