CITIC Securities: bullish on the overall bull market trend in the non-ferrous metals sector.
Zhongtai Securities' research report stated that it is optimistic about the overall bull market in the non-ferrous sector.
1. Industrial Metals: Several major mines have experienced successive unexpected disturbances, leading to a significant downward revision of global copper mine production next year. Overseas power shortages have also caused supply disruptions in electrolytic aluminum, while traditional demand is expected to benefit from a global easing cycle. Although the growth rate of new energy demand is slowing down, its proportion continues to rise. The demand for electricity brought by AI is also expected to provide incremental demand. Industrial metals will usher in a moment of resonance between macroeconomic and fundamental factors, and it is optimistic about the continuous rise in copper and aluminum commodity prices. Although most stock prices are at new high levels, valuation remains at a neutral to low level due to the rise in commodity prices and the realization of company growth prospects.
2. Energy Metals: With the continuous increase in energy storage demand expectations, the supply-demand pattern of lithium carbonate next year has significantly improved from the previous expectation of oversupply, and the industry's bottoming-out expectation is worth looking forward to. After the implementation of an export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, cobalt prices have risen sharply, and with supply constraints next year, there is still an expectation of price increases.
3. Precious Metals: Against the backdrop of overseas currency overissuance and the continued weakening of fiscal discipline, the reshaping of the US dollar credit system has become a trend. The long-term bullish logic of gold prices remains unchanged. The performance of gold stocks lags significantly behind the continuously hitting new highs of gold prices. Currently, stock valuation levels are at historical lows, presenting a good time for positioning.
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