Shen Wan Hongyuan Bull Market Two Thesis: The technology structural bull of 2025 is the "Bull Market 1.0" phase, and 2026H2 may initiate a comprehensive bull market.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities stated that the migration cycle of resident asset allocation resonates with economic, policy, and industry cycles, which is enough to drive a bull market. The cycle of relative power changes in major countries is much longer than the migration cycle of resident asset allocation. The optimistic expectations at this level may drive the bull market to exceed historical levels. "Bull Market 1.0" may peak in the spring of 2026: the trend of the AI industry still has depth, but the stock prices of A-share AI industry chains are already in a long-term low-price-to-value area. This is similar to the ChiNext board in early 2014, the food and beverage sector in early 2018, and the new energy sector in early 2021. Historically, it usually needs to go through an adjustment period of a "suspicious bull market level" before continuing the industrial trend market. "Bull Market 2.0" may be a comprehensive bull: by the middle of 2026, there will be a clearance of midstream manufacturing supply. The number of subdivisions in the industry with capacity growth slower than the central demand growth rate will significantly increase, and the success rate of bottom-up stock selection will improve. The effectiveness of the framework of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" will gradually return, and by the middle of 2026, the moment when the "policy bottom" may be confirmed, the "Bull Market 2.0" rally is expected to start. This round of bull market will ultimately be a "technology bull" or a "China influence enhancement bull", supported by the improvement in fundamental cycles, the strengthening of emerging industry trends, the migration of resident asset allocation to equities, and the resonance of China's global influence, all leading to a comprehensive bull market.