Sinotrust Securities: Supply and demand conditions continue to improve, opening up an upward cycle for the aviation industry.

The research report of Zhongtai Securities indicates that the supply and demand situation continues to improve, and the aviation industry has entered an upward cycle. In the third quarter of 2025, the industry's existing supply continued to be digested, with peak season aircraft utilization rate exceeding that of 2019, indicating that future supply growth is expected to slow down. At the same time, there is a significant increase in international routes and limited domestic capacity growth, indicating an optimization of the domestic competitive landscape. With high passenger load factors, ticket prices are expected to improve. Currently, oil prices and exchange rates are experiencing a double benefit, with the fourth quarter showing a trend of "not being slow during the off-season". It is predicted that the industry is expected to significantly reduce losses in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the industry's profit potential is expected to be released in 2026.