German Commercial Bank: If official data reveals weakness, the US dollar may weaken.

Thu Lan Nguyen of Deutsche Bank said in a report that if delayed data release continues to confirm further rate cuts, the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown could be unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. She pointed out that the recent rise in the dollar was due to the lack of official data during the shutdown, which supported the view of the Federal Reserve holding off on further rate cuts. Nguyen stated that delayed data may show a weakening labor market but increasing inflation. She believes that the Federal Reserve may place more emphasis on employment, as it is harder to control than inflation. She thinks that the recent decline in rate cut expectations is unreasonable, and sees it more as another argument for a weaker dollar.