The high degree of industrial concentration is alarming. Can AI risks no longer be concealed?

According to data from Deutsche Bank, funds are pouring into the AI sector at an unprecedented rate, and the preferences of hedge funds for stocks are highly correlated with those of retail investors. Household stock holdings have also reached a historic high. According to The Economist's estimation, if there is a crack in the valuation of AI technology, the wealth effect alone could drag down the US GDP by 2.9%, indicating that the economy's dependence on AI has reached a dangerous level. The sentiment in the options market is also extremely bullish. According to LSEG data, the 3-month 25 Delta call skew for the seven tech giants in the US stock market is in the 91st percentile, reflecting investors' extreme optimism about an increase. However, the current situation contrasts with historical patterns observed by Goldman Sachs, as AI-related stocks have previously experienced significant pullbacks before being bought on dips. The current narrative of "only going up" is fragile, and the risks are not limited to the stock market. Credit risks in the tech industry are rising sharply, contrasting with the relative calm in the banking sector, and the high degree of industry concentration is cause for concern. According to CB Insights data, apart from Anthropic, Nvidia supports almost all major AI participants, and the high concentration in the supply chain exacerbates systemic risks. Market narratives have also undergone a drastic reversal in a short period of time, from "search is dying" to "Google becoming the AI leader", exposing the unstable market sentiment. According to TopDown data, the current situation is highly similar to historical bubble periods, which often do not end well. Observers believe that when all investors believe in the same story, a turning point may be quietly brewing, and the AI investment frenzy is at a crossroads from "opportunity" to "risk".