Huatai Securities researcher Zhang Jiqiang: A large amount of mid-to-long term deposits being restructured next year may benefit the stock market.

At the 2026 Investment Summit of Huatai Securities, Zhang Jiqiang, Director of Huatai Securities Research Institute and Chief of Fixed Income, said that this year's stock market is mainly driven by emotions, funds, and valuations, with changes in market perception and narrative driving the market. Next year is expected to shift towards performance verification. The bond market this year mainly corrected the excessive rise at the beginning of the year, and next year will return to fundamental logic, focusing on factors such as nominal GDP, financing demand, and the stock-bond price ratio. It is worth noting that next year is a year when a large amount of medium and long-term deposits will mature. The reallocation of this type of funds may benefit the stock market. Regarding the trend judgment of the performance of stocks and bonds in 2026, Zhang Jiqiang believes that in the short term, the stock market may lean towards consolidation, with slightly higher odds for the bond market but average odds for returns. However, by the first quarter of next year, the probability of stocks outperforming bonds is still relatively high. The main pressures facing the bond market come from expectations of improved fundamentals, institutional behavior adjustments, and the stock-bond price ratio. Nevertheless, with monetary policy still supportive and financing demand still to recover, there is limited room for interest rates to rise, and the overall market may present a slightly weaker and volatile pattern.