Huatai Securities: It is expected that China's exports will continue to grow at a relatively high rate in 2026.

The research report of Huatai Securities pointed out that this year's exports have exceeded expectations. Even under the extreme test of the United States increasing tariffs on China to as high as 145%, Chinese exports still grew by 6% year-on-year in the second quarter, demonstrating strong resilience. In the third quarter, exports accelerated again, and it appears that the high base in the fourth quarter may not hinder high export growth. This article reviews the two factors of cyclical and structural resilience of Chinese exports this year. We believe that, although supported by macro and industry cycles, the resilience of Chinese exports is the result of seven years of industrial transformation, upgrading, and optimization since 2018, with strong structural support. It is expected that Chinese exports will continue to maintain high growth by 2026, and in an environment of high global inflation, the profitability of the export chain may still be relatively "exceptional". The successful transformation and upgrading of the Chinese manufacturing and export industry chain is also an important source of confidence for China in facing adjustments in US tariffs and defending its bottom line.