Long-term US Treasury bonds are leading the decline due to ADP employment data exceeding expectations.

date
08/02/2026
US Treasury bonds fell on Wednesday as the job market showed resilience and investor concerns about the future supply of government bonds did not diminish. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose by 3 basis points to 4.11%, reaching its highest closing level in nearly a month. Long-dated bonds were among the biggest decliners, as data released by ADP showed that US business employment grew more than expected in October. Florian Ielpo, head of the macro multi-asset team at Swiss Rockol Asset Management, said, "This employment report should help alleviate the Fed's concerns about the deterioration of the labor market." He believes that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond will fluctuate between 4.00% and 4.25% for "quite some time." The sell-off in government bonds intensified further after the Treasury Department announced a new round of refinancing plans. Although, as expected by the market, US officials stated that they will not increase the issuance of government and medium- to long-term bonds before next year, this may disappoint some investors who were betting on the government being more active in shortening the borrowing period. Due to the government shutdown, ADP's data has become more important. It is one of the few remaining monthly employment market data releases, becoming an important reference for investors to judge the direction of the US economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy decisions.