Goldman Sachs: Preconditions for yen intervention have not yet been met.
Goldman Sachs strategist says that the usual prerequisites for triggering intervention in the yen have not been met, including the exchange rate rapidly dropping to significantly weak levels, disconnecting from fundamentals, and stronger verbal intervention. The yen "does not appear to be at particularly weak levels," with its movements "closely related to the repricing of fiscal risk premiums and recent changes in market expectations for the Bank of Japan's short-term policies," strategist Karen Reichgott Fishman wrote in a report. Goldman Sachs believes that if a lack of U.S. economic data leaves no doubt about current positive growth expectations in the market, and the market refocuses on the possibility of early elections in Japan, there is room for further weakening of the yen. In the longer term, the bank still expects a gradual strengthening of the yen driven by lower hedging costs and a comprehensive weakening of the dollar, while any signs of deterioration in the U.S. labor market could trigger a faster and more significant appreciation of the yen.
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