Summary of Powell's October press conference

1. Policy interest rate outlook: Another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is not set in stone. There are diverging opinions today. Some members of the FOMC believe it is time to pause for a moment. 2. Balance sheet: There was no decision made today regarding the composition of the balance sheet. The composition of the balance sheet is a long-term process that will be gradual. The goal is to adjust the balance sheet towards shorter duration. 3. Job market: Due to restrictive policy, the job market is still cooling down. There is no worsening of weakness in the job market, and job vacancies indicate that the market has remained stable in the past four weeks. Labor supply has dramatically decreased, affecting the job market. The Federal Reserve closely monitors layoff decisions. 4. Inflation: The September CPI was milder than expected. Service inflation, excluding the housing market, has been unilaterally trending. Core PCE, excluding tariffs, may be at 2.3% or 2.4%. Non-tariff inflation has not strayed far from the 2% inflation target. The basic prediction is that the US will experience additional tariff inflation. 5. Government shutdown: Data disclosed by private sectors cannot replace government department statistics. It can be imagined that the Trump administration shutdown will impact the December FOMC monetary policy meeting. 6. Market reaction: The yield on the 10-year US Treasury maintained an increase of over 8 basis points, steadying around a daily high of 4.0583%; the yield on the 2-year US Treasury also maintained an increase of over 10 basis points, steadying around a daily high of 3.5919%.