Business Society: Lithium carbonate prices continue to rise due to tight supply.
08/03/2024
GMT Eight
According to the business society commodity market analysis system, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise recently. As of March 7th, the domestic average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 102,400 yuan/ton, a 6.22% increase compared to the average price of 96,400 yuan/ton on March 1st; the domestic average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 111,400 yuan/ton, a 5.69% increase compared to the average price of 105,400 yuan/ton on March 1st.
Supply: Due to the impact of the Yichun environmental inspection event, the resumption of production in the Jiangxi region has been delayed. In addition, with the reduction in production of Australian mines and some domestic lithium salt companies still in the initial stage of maintenance and repair, their available goods are mainly based on long-term contracts, with relatively few spot market supplies, leading to expectations of tight supply. Therefore, the spot prices of lithium salt companies in the market continue to rise overall, and some companies still maintain a high-price strategy for selling spot goods.
Demand: Some downstream battery manufacturers believe that the high price of lithium carbonate in the market is not driven by real market demand, but more of an expectation for a recovery in demand in the future. Therefore, most downstream battery manufacturers generally have a poor acceptance of high-priced lithium carbonate, only purchasing a small amount of low-priced goods in the market or a small amount of high-priced goods based on order requirements, to maintain raw material inventory at a relatively reasonable level without a large amount of stocking needs.
The market for downstream lithium hydroxide has seen an increase. With the rise in lithium carbonate prices and upstream lithium spodumene ore prices, the cost support for lithium hydroxide has also increased, and the market transactions are mainly based on long-term contracts, with a positive attitude towards prices leading to a slight increase in lithium hydroxide prices.
The market for downstream lithium iron phosphate is on an upward trend. With the rise in lithium carbonate prices on the raw material side, the downstream market is replenishing on demand, mainly supplying contract customers. The lithium battery market is in a wait-and-see atmosphere, with sufficient supply and a positive outlook on negotiations, leading to a narrow and strong price trend.
In terms of futures: There are still disturbances in the supply side of the market, and the market is heavily influenced by funds and emotions, leading to large fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures prices. The main contract LC2407 for March 7, 2024 opened at 115,000 yuan/ton, closed at 113,000 yuan/ton, with a high price of 116,450 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.27%, with a trading volume of 365,700 lots and an open interest of 215,643 lots.
In conclusion, analysts at the business society believe that the current prices of lithium salt companies are relatively strong, but market prices are still higher than downstream purchasing psychology, therefore, the future market still has uncertainties. The outlook for the lithium carbonate market is expected to be weak in terms of supply and demand, leading to a wait-and-see attitude among industry players, with short-term lithium carbonate spot prices expected to stabilize for now.